Coalition of "pulling back on the brink of Britain" requests are absurd

To mention that the senior coalition politicians involved in the CSR, until relatively recently, failed to challenge the grotesque spending habits of former chancellor and prime minister, Gordon Brown, the tax vandal who got the UK into this mess, may be construed as churlish.But I don't think so.


The fact that the Tories, in particular, spoke such nonsense about tax policy for so long - pledging to match Brown's deeply irresponsible plans pound-for-pound - means they need to show even more resolve now if they're to convince the UK's all-important creditors they really are serious.


Amidst all the talk of "axis-wielding" and "amputated", let us not lose sight of where we are.In September, UK Government borrowing was £ 16 2bn - another record high. Despite the retrenchment rhetoric, the state borrowed more last month than in September 2009 - gold any September ever - despite last January's VAT rise from 15pc to 17 5pc.This returned boost was blown away, though, by £ 2 3bn of debt interest payments last month, 152pc higher than the same month the year before.


The 2010 budget deficit will be around 10pc of GDP - much more than when the UK went "cap-in-hand" to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1976. That doesn't include the multi-billion pound bank bailouts – which the Tories have buried off balance-sheet, like labour before them.


So, the UK is in genuine tax risk. No. wonder the coalition has been spin doctoring headlines about "pulling back from the brink Britain". But while we face an unprecedented problem are we responding with a suitably bold solution? Well, not so far – as the September borrowing numbers show.And not in the years to come, if you look at the CSR fine print.


In essence, all that George Osborne did on Wednesday was to confirm the current expenditure totals he set out in his Emergency Budget in June.To appeal to Britain's middle-classes, the Chancellor claimed that by 2014-15, the UK's welfare bill will rise by £ 7bn less than expected. Note, we are talking about a slower rate of increase, not a cut. Combining that notional gain with "savings" of £ 5bn elsewhere allowed Osborne to say his 3 squeeze will be less severe than announced in June, with departmental expenditure £ 10 3bn higher than previously forecast by 2014-15.


So the spending plans for the next five years haven't begun to be implemented and already they're being watered down. While the welfare and other "efficiency savings" withdrawals may not happen, the extra spending by other departments most certainly will. This is not a good sign, given that the real political fallout of "decentralizaton" is yet to come.


The Coalition retorts that the CSR "amounts to Britain's most aggressive postwar fiscal consolidation". Even if the plans are fully implemented - a very big if - that statement is false. Total Managed Expenditure (TME) - current more capital spending - is set to peak this year, before falling by 3 3pc a year in real terms by 2014-15. As a proportion of GDP, TME comes down from 47 5pc to 41pc over the next five years.


This is not unprecedented.On the same measure, TME fell 6.5 percentage points during the retrenchment of the early 1980s and by 5.5 percentage points from 1992-93. These earlier figures are what was actually achieved in terms of spending cuts, rather than government plans on a piece of paper. Remember also, that the tax situation we face today is far, far worse than during the early 1980s or early 1990s.


On Wednesday we were told that 490,000 public sector workers will lose their jobs over the next five years. That sounds like a high number and, despite natural wastage and redundancy deals not available in the private sector, this cut will be painful for many of those involved. But it represents merely a return to where the public sector headcount was in 2005.That is by no. means a historic retrenchment.


The Coalition is pulling back from really serious action, of course, in part due to parliamentary arithmetic - and the prospect of Liberal Democrat backbenchers derailing the entire program.That's why Osborne and co need to get out from behind their image-makers and take this debate to the public, straining every sinew to explain why tax consolidation is about necessity rather than ideology.


The Labour opposition and their subordinates Keynesian economists, argue that "taking billions of pounds of out the economy" will prevent recovery.This is nonsense. What the SRB did was to slightly reduce what the Government will spend in the future, money it would anyway have to borrow.


During the seven years from 2002, Brown racked up state debts averaging £ 30bn a year. It was way too much – ensuring that Britain went into the "sub-prime" meltdown with the worst public finance of any major economy, contributing mightily to our current predicament. But even under this "eye-watering" COSA, the UK will borrow more than £ 100bn a year for the next three years. That is really unprecedented.


Keynesians argue that our national debt - at around 70pc of GDP - "isn't ain't high". That ignores public sector pensions and other state liabilities equal to 100pc of GDP that lurk around off the books. Even if we exclude those, though, while the UK's annual budget deficit should fall over the next few years, the debt stock will keep rising.


Our interest debt bill of £ 3bn 2 a month is also likely to spiral upward - given ever-growing debt totals and the reality that "quantitative easing" (ve) will ultimately have to end. For now, the Bank of England is creating money from thin air and using the vast majority of it to buy government IOUs, keeping state borrowing costs artificially low.Once that stops, UK debt interest payments will rise even faster than they already are.


The steepness of Britain's recent borrowing run - up and the extension of the increase deep into the future is uniquely horrific.No other g-7 nation comes close.That raises very serious issues among the UK's creditors.Consider, too, that most UK gilts are unindexed.Despite the deflationists' deeply dishonest public relations campaign, inflation is rearing its ugly head.That will make such gilts much harder to sell once QE has gone.Gilts strike would be disastrous, plunging the UK back into recession - but that is what will happen unless we borrow less.That is the case the Keynesians must answer.


We live in historic times.This weekend, the G20 nations announced a major reconfiguration of the IMF, conceding significant powers to the emerging giants of the East.This deal goes way beyond ceremony marking the coming of a more competitive age, where Western hegemonies don't exist and our relative - and even absolute - living standards look set to fall.


As this new era dawns, it is old world countries with high current debts and huge future liabilities that will suffer the most.Our leaders need to explain these realities and act upon them.Macho headlines are not enough.


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