QE2 risk of currency wars and the end of dollar hegemony
"QE2" risks the Fed accelerated the collapse of the dollar-based monetary system possibly leading to an unstable tripod with the euro and yuan, a gold standard hybrid or a multi-metal "bancor" along the lines proposed by John Maynard Keynes, in the 1940s.
Commerce Department China fired a furious backwardation against Washington Monday."The depreciation of the dollar continues and drastic recently led countries including the Japan, Korea South and intervene in the currency market Thailand intensify a"currency war". in the medium term, the u.s. dollar will continue to weaken and climbing game between the major currencies,"he said.""
David Bloom, currency Chief at HSBC, said that the root problem is the lack of underlying demand in the global economy, leaving the Western economies trapped near stall speed."There is no policy levers to gauche.Rencontrez countries to tighten fiscal policy and interest rates are already near zéro.Le last resort is a weaker currency, so everyone is trying to do", he said.
Pious words of the G20 Summit Finance Ministers month last call for the world to pursue commercial advantage by devaluation "refrain" appear to be more honored in the breach.
Taiwan intervened Monday to limit the increase of its currency, while the head of the Central Bank of the Korea stated that his country is Brigue capital as part of its "Toolbox" controls to stem the flow of money Fed created leaks the United States and bubbled in Asia.Brazil imposed just a 2pc obligations and actions - input tax naturally, since the real has increased 35pc against the dollar this year and the country has a current account deficit.
"It becomes more difficult to MOP the liquidity flows in these countries," said Neil Mellor, Bank of New York Mellon."We expect full several central banks to impose controls on capital over the next two months." It is the world that we live, "he said .the globalization is unravelling before our eyes."
Each case are différent.Pour 40 - odd countries pegged to the dollar or closely linked by "dirty float", lax political fed is originally from devastation. They import a monetary policy which is far too loose for the needs of fast-growing économies.Ce which should be the anchor of stability has become a danger.
Hong Kong dollar peg back in the 1960s, makes it virtually impossible to verify a credit sauvages.Prix Chamber explosion increased 50pc since January 2009, despite drastic margins on loans hypothécaires.Barclays said Capital Hong Kong can move from a peg of yuan within two years.
Mr. Bloom said that these countries are under pressure to break out of the dollar mounting."They all ask if these pins are a relic of the past", he said.
China is facing a variant of the problem with its mixed currency basket a sort of "crawling peg".Trade Minister Chen Deming said last week that the u.s. dollar is "out of control".It is originally a push inflation imported into China.
Critical of the Congress say China could resolve the specific problem quickly leaving the yuan rise enough to make the trade surplus countries $180bn equilibrium.
They say that strategy to maintain pressed the yuan to support the model of China's exports is real inflation of prices and wages galloping on the East of the Central Bank Chine.La coast source has accumulated 2.5 trillion dollar bonds foreign but lack sophisticated to "sterilize" buy instruments and inflation shoot "kick-back".
But whatever the rights and the injustices of the argument, the reality is a chorus of Chinese officials and advisors is demanding that China switch reserves in gold or oil .Comme forms the anti-dollar revolt gathers momentum worldwide, the U.S. risks losing its "exorbitant privilege" of the hegemony of the currency - the term of Charles de Gaulle.
Innocent bystanders caught between fires Fed policy are the poorest countries, as India, where primary goods constitute 60pc index prices and food inflation now operates 14pc.Il is difficult to assess the impact of a falling dollar products, but the pattern in the middle of 2008 was led to oil, metal, and increases with leverage multiples.Les victims of basic cereals prices are poorer countries importers of food in Africa and Asia's South. tell them QE2 brings good news.
The question that Ben Bernanke and his colleagues should ask themselves is if they have thought through the global ramifications of their actions and how strategic consequences could rebound against America itself.
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