A good start, but we must keep the recovery path clear obstacles
12:05
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GDP figures for the third quarter of Tuesday are another step towards this time.
A week ago I said constitute a threat to coalition collective determination to push through with the reductions.
But when I, as most of the "experts" in the city think economic growth would be tantamount to 0.4pc.Le 0 real 8pc was a piece of good news surprise. But there were in small print other reasons to rebuild confidence.
The quarter development, growth is more strong, which implies a positive momentum for the end of the year .Construction and Government services provided number of catchy titles, but recovery is wider than just these two sectors will be obviously affected by the slowdown in public spending next year. Do not take into account these two still output growth 2 6pc in the year through September.
And after it was as deep as the beginning of the 1980s recession, with a peak at the decline of 6 5pc, this last recession pit saw much faster recovery.
We are now in 3 9pc our economic summit in the first quarter of 2008. At the same point in the cycle in the 1980's we were still 4 low 4pc.
We will therefore make a good start to the recovery.But that needs now economy are the policies that will ensure momentum was lost step - policies that encourage the creation of businesses and jobs, not deterred by footling and myopic fees regulations.
These job losses are not what they seem
But what about reductions?Certainly, the reduction of public spending ￡ 81bn still threatens us knock off course.Remediation of finance public current required is a pain but will not fatal.As we know, social assistance payments will be a large part of the savings and so-called transfer payments do not directly feed in the same way with the wage sector public.De PIB.De figures clearly with 490 000 jobs should go, which must have an indirect effect on other sectors as consumption is undermined.
But how many of these job losses will actually sweat as compulsory redundancies - the kind of brutal slaughter people are fearful and what happens?
If you assume these losses of employment fall within four years of barely more than 120,000 per year and then take on outsourcing saving money from private sector providers contracts could absorb approximately 50 000 per year.But it is much more than public sector managers can do before taking an axe to the permanent staff.There are consultants and temporary staff who is not replaced at the end of their contrat.Il is voluntary redundancies and natural attrition staff people retire.Productivity can be increased by cracking down on rates of absenteeism and staff will leave voluntarily prospects improve private sector and become less attractive in the State sector.
It is too simplistic to assume that the savings identified in the active population simply convert a similar number of newly unemployed.
ARM raised to build workforce we need
If you want to have other reasons to feel more confident and then search for the business sector.
Particularly noticeable yesterday that Sir Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive of advertising and marketing giant WPP, said that his company had just his highest since 10 ans.Il joins other advertising on a more positive tone - an important plomb.Mais then indicator frameworks we have quarter saw results of ARM Holdings, Cambridge Semiconductor .Ses database designer results have been extremely strong leading to tell the city increase their prévisions.Mais analysts I was most struck by the fact that MRA employs more than people-10pc in the world and 15pc here.
It comes to software engineers, exactly the kind of job, we need to help us to build a sustainable future and brillant.Oui, there are reasons of prudence.Il are several reasons why we can begin to rebuild our confidence too.
