Doubts grow on the wisdom of Ben Bernanke "super - put".
In the meantime, U.S. crude oil prices jumped $ 2.5 to $87 per barrel. This is 20pc, given that the markets first concluded at the beginning of September "QE2" is.
This is tantamount to a tax on American consumers transfer income U.S. Mid-East Petro-powers.Copper has behaved in a large part of the same fa?on.donc sugar, soybean and cotton.
The dollar plunged again a fois.Qui may have been fed the unstated goal.If so, Washington angry increasing powers of the world and invited reaction with heavy strategic consequences.
Li Deshui Economic Commission in Beijing said string on the part of the "Deep bitterness" Asian China dollar debasement and examine ways to team release the liquidity U.S. tsunami.The Thailand stated that its Central Bank is already in talks with the neighbors to develop a joint policy.
Head of the Central Bank of the Brazil Henrique said Mereilles move the u.s. had created "excessive liquidity dollar that we are absorbent," forcing his country to limit inputs. Mexico, Finance Minister has warned "bubble more."
These countries can easily protect themselves QE2 inflationary effect by increasing interest rates since this leads to the entries of "carry trade" beaver to performance. They are forced to look the capital controls with implications of bode well for the interlaced global system.
London and Frankfurt verdict was also difficult. "In our opinion, is one of the biggest political mistakes in the history of the Fed," said Toby Nangle of Baring Asset Management.
"The Fed is what is called"portfolio balance channel effect"- pushing money from Government and other assets - obligations will be raising prices of risk assets. The bet is that it stimulates profits and wages, rather than just the price. We are still not convinced.How a solution of liquidity will be fixing a solvency problem? ", he said.
"An error" political", says Ulrich Leuchtmann of Commerzbank.The wording of the Declaration of the Federal Reserve is "dangerous" because it leaves the door open for another flood of the Ministry of finance purchases if unemployment remains high. "It's a well," he said.
Of course, it is precisely this open door that has so much juice risk trades, the Australian dollar futures contracts for money and junk bonds.Goldman Sachs believes QE2 ultimately arrives 2 trillion dollars, with no output in 2015.Ce moral hazard is irresistible.This is the Bernanke "super - put".
However, the reluctance of investors jump to u.s. Treasury market as they did after QE1 is telling.30 Years of the Treasury market segment is too small to matter, but symbolism importe.Miliciens sniff stealth by default."If long bond investors continue to launch their toys collective of the cot, subverting the Federal Reserve policy", said Michael Derk de FXPro.
Mr. Bernanke is 5 to 10 years with buying bonds Trésor.Ces bond maturities have are better behaved: ten-year yields fell 14 points Thursday at 2 48pc.However, Mark Ostwald monument Securities said foreign funds can take advantage of the QE2 to empty their assets in the US Federal Reserve, turning us money rather than active emerging markets.
Bond funds are already agités.Projet Bill Gross, pimco says great Bull bond market is denigrating Fed policy as the largest "ponzi scheme" in history.Warren Buffett has added too, warning that anyone who bought bonds at this stage is "making a big mistake."
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke uses the term "credit easing ' to describe its strategy because the goal is to reduce u.s. borrowing costs ' fails to achieve this objective in the coming months - because investors balk - policy will backfire."
No clear justification of fresh QE found in monetarism orthodoxe.Les data of the issuance of the St. Louis Federal Reserve that the M2 money supply stopped funding at the beginning of the summer and has since expanded at a rapid pace, topping 9pc last block of four weeks.
The US Federal Reserve has used the "Taylor rule ' on the shortcomings of output as a QE, theoretical justification but Stanford professor John Taylor said more or less his theories have been taken hostage." """I think (ve) will do much good, and I am concerned also damage on the road", he said.
It was not lost on the markets than the Federal Reserve purchases of $900bn Treasury (with reinvested funds mortgage debt) June cover deficit of the Treasury during the same période.La slipperly slope towards debt "monetization" waits.
Investors world mostly agreed that was the reason of QE1 emergency liquidity and this stimulus would later be retirée.Mais there is a growing suspicion QE2 as Treasury Board funding disguised.
If they start to act on this suspicion, they could push rates higher rather than lower and submerge the stimulus Bernanke.Qui would precipitate an ugly string of events for the United States.
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