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NEW YORK – The United States economy headed for a recession, said John Taylor, President and CEO of the investment of concepts FX and which will be probably benefit the dollar and weigh on the prices of raw materials.

"This is a new recession." Grossissons already, but the figures show United States remains the principal creator of this growth, Government said Taylor, who leads the most big hedge fund currency in the world with assets under management of $ 8.5 billion.

"I would say that by the middle of the year next, we are in a recession and our tax hands will be linked".

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Banks in a recession tend to require repayment of the loan, and if the debt is denominated in u.s. dollar - and in most cases, they are - then investors are eager as they scramble to find billions of dollars to pay off the debt.

This is what happened in late 2008 when the safe-haven dollar strengthened against most major currencies.

"This is a kind of perverse." When the u.s. economy hurts, the dollar back and when the economy is doing well, the dollar goes down.

For now, all eyes are on the euro area faces a crisis of debt. Theoretically, at a given time that the euro could disintegrate, Taylor said.

"That Europe is not enough." "They must have some Eurobonds," says Taylor. "You only lend money to the Ireland or Greece." You're just piling on debt more for them, and it becomes harder and harder to repay. ?

Taylor said that Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland with the Spain. This will push the euro parity against the dollar next year, it provides. Trade in New York at the beginning, the euro was down 1% to $1.3277.

It recommends the euro against the Swiss franc, a currency sale whose economy has fared better than most European countries.

Head of FX concepts is also declining commodity, predict that this asset class will slow next year as the US economy goes into recession. Expected to be negative for the currencies linked to commodities such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.

He said the Australian dollar, which have been the best-performing currency so far among group of 10 rich countries, currencies with a gain of approximately 10% over the year, pourrait slide 15-20 percent.

FX concepts employs several investment strategies. Global currencies, program that invests in developed and major emerging market currencies lights 4.26% in November, but its annual return for 2010 is estimated at 12.03%.

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Last week, the coalition presented its plan of large reductions in the public sector, to curb the budget deficit. Still a big question: will be private pick up the slack? This week, David Cameron tries to persuade us that the answer is Yes – and fortunately, I think it may be good.

It is not that I'm succumbing to Cameron of persuasion.I do not think that what (perfectly reasonable), announced at the Conference of the Confederation of British Industry Monday will be addressed the balance.Ni I I kissed any particular economic orthodoxy: in fact, I wondered if a model can be constructed so that explains why most strongly their views differ, most vehement and forget economists are found.

Not my optimism is that it seems more likely that new jobs in the private sector will appear on a sufficient scale to replace the 500,000 or if which are set to disappear in the public sector in the four or five years. In fact, the process seems to be underway: according to the Office of national statistics, Cooperativas new jobs have been created in three months in August.

Of course, everything is pink. Most of these posts - 143 000 of them - were part-time. There are now eight million part-time workers at United Kingdom, more than a million would rather work full-time.

Yet the economy grows again - but not rapidly, despite profits and data better than expected yesterday - companies are reflected back. Sir Stuart Rose, one believes that strict measures in the comprehensive spending review last week, paradoxically, will boost consumer confidence. ""With clarity, I believe, sometimes more confidence," the outgoing President Marks & Spencer told a Conference detail Monday."We are in a much better that we place there are 24 mois.Nous are in a better place than we were 12 months ago." We are not in the clear blue waters, but we, providing all these actions take place. ?

What state of mind of the consumer, the rebound in business confidence was caused by the prospect of stability économique.La coalition merit some credit for this - and has not been slow to pretend that it.

What was not appreciated enough, however, is the Britain corporate competence to navigate his way through a financial crisis ugly and painful recession. In the period that preceded the bust, many British companies have shown remarkable good sens.Particuliers, banks and Governments borrowed too much. Companies - with many notable exceptions - have resisted the temptation.

This is always facile.La truth is that if companies had followed the advice given by their investment banks, the financial crisis would have been much uglier and deeper recession. Credit cheap offer consumers were also peddled for fund administrators and leaders.In 2006, I saw a teacher punishing a roomful of frameworks that if they had not loaded on good market debt, they were guilty of a company unforgivable sin: inefficient use of the balance sheet of the company.

Wisely, many patterns ignored advice.Liked the flexibility to have a little money, and scope of borrowed a sum of money if an attractive investment opportunity came long de.Il was also.When the crisis, the majority were able to survive - and managed to minimize job losses by negotiating wage reductions or reduced working, instead of simply laying off staff time.

Even among companies which extend over themselves, default rates have been lower than expected, in part, of course, because many banks was in disorder such as themselves that they have adopted a policy to cross their fingers and turn a blind eye when companies failed to comply with their loan agreements.And now businesses are beginning to invest in nouveau.Le last Bank of England credit conditions survey showed that the request for funding to make acquisitions increased again.Companies are stronger sales prediction next year.

There is room for the Government to make plus.Richard Lambert, head of the IWC, yesterday demanded a stronger policy framework to encourage investment in the production of electricity and improved public procurement.

Admittedly, the British economy is faced with structural as well as cycliques.Par everything it is desirable to rebuild manufacturing difficulties, it requires heavy investments over a period extended to create the number relatively low job highly qualifiés.Comme for those much trumpeted green jobs, how many people is never used in the uptake of carbon, even assuming a sustainable pay so it happens method?

Job creation is more rapid in the services sector, but Aboriginal unemployed Britain appear not terribly interested in work in coffee bars and of the h?tels.Et what work our children find, when they come from the University with a debt?

Perhaps they will have to compete with their parents as a barista work that we expect to draw our pension at the age of 74 ans.Mais at least we need more urgent at this time: durable, even if it means not precisely the jobs jobs we souhaitons.Et, of course, the prospect of a decent Cup of coffee.

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