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NEW YORK – The United States economy headed for a recession, said John Taylor, President and CEO of the investment of concepts FX and which will be probably benefit the dollar and weigh on the prices of raw materials.

"This is a new recession." Grossissons already, but the figures show United States remains the principal creator of this growth, Government said Taylor, who leads the most big hedge fund currency in the world with assets under management of $ 8.5 billion.

"I would say that by the middle of the year next, we are in a recession and our tax hands will be linked".

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Banks in a recession tend to require repayment of the loan, and if the debt is denominated in u.s. dollar - and in most cases, they are - then investors are eager as they scramble to find billions of dollars to pay off the debt.

This is what happened in late 2008 when the safe-haven dollar strengthened against most major currencies.

"This is a kind of perverse." When the u.s. economy hurts, the dollar back and when the economy is doing well, the dollar goes down.

For now, all eyes are on the euro area faces a crisis of debt. Theoretically, at a given time that the euro could disintegrate, Taylor said.

"That Europe is not enough." "They must have some Eurobonds," says Taylor. "You only lend money to the Ireland or Greece." You're just piling on debt more for them, and it becomes harder and harder to repay. ?

Taylor said that Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland with the Spain. This will push the euro parity against the dollar next year, it provides. Trade in New York at the beginning, the euro was down 1% to $1.3277.

It recommends the euro against the Swiss franc, a currency sale whose economy has fared better than most European countries.

Head of FX concepts is also declining commodity, predict that this asset class will slow next year as the US economy goes into recession. Expected to be negative for the currencies linked to commodities such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.

He said the Australian dollar, which have been the best-performing currency so far among group of 10 rich countries, currencies with a gain of approximately 10% over the year, pourrait slide 15-20 percent.

FX concepts employs several investment strategies. Global currencies, program that invests in developed and major emerging market currencies lights 4.26% in November, but its annual return for 2010 is estimated at 12.03%.

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Mr. Horta-Os?rio, who is married and has three children, began his career at the Citibank Portugal where he was responsible for the capital markets.

46 Years old, a veteran of 850 scuba dives - 100 of them "shark dives" Santander UK Executive Director since 2006.

In the last few years he has swallowed Alliance & Leicester for ￡ 1. 26bn, Bradford & Bingley ￡ 21bn savings book and 197 branches to 612 million from ￡ 318 branches of the Royal Bank of Scotland, adding them to the Abbey, the British Bank belonging to Santander.

Mr. Horta-Osório, who is married and has three children, began his career at the Citibank Portugal where he was responsible for the capital markets.

He then worked for Goldman Sachs in New York and London before joining Grupo Santander as Chief Executive of the Banco Santander de Negocios Portugal in 1993.

Bankers as public enemy number one in the wake of the financial crisis, he says: "I would say bankers are being impliquées.Je would say that it has as an industry work hard to improve its credibility."

However, there is no Jonas and does not believe that the UK financial sector is dying.

"The financial sector is an advantage competitive key of the British economy, this should be encouraged and nurtured by the authorities", he said in an interview last year.

"I think the United Kingdom has all conditions to become even stronger from this crisis on a relative basis and will continue to be an advantage competitive key fleet economy does not mean errors do not have to be corrected."

In June 2009 he was appointed non-Executive Director of the Court of the Bank of England.

Mr. Horta-Osório, who is also Executive Vice President of the Santander group and member of its Management Committee, has a degree in management and trade at the Portuguese Catholic University, an MBA from INSEAD and completed a program advanced management of the Harvard Business School.

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Charles Bean stated: "we were not alone suggests a very severe contraction of activity was unlikely ' photo: AP".

The answer is no. There are already lots of evidence at the beginning of 2008 to show that we have run during the recession.Bean and his colleagues at the monetary policy Committee could read newspapers more closely trop.Qui could have helped.

But the PPC and many others, ignored the warnings or insisted on the interpretation of the evidence by pink tinted glasses.Put that simply that they were not quite skeptical of wisdom received from Treasury Board for Gordon Brown it possible linger Britain abolished cycle économique.Déclaration Brown March 2001 that: "we will come back on the expansion and President Deputy Mr." resonates still terribly .c ' is a common theme of its beginning in 1997.

But it was clear to the logs like this at the beginning of 2008 that we headed for recession and rate would be cut off.

For example, on 6 June 2008, I wrote: "the doves you should look at M4 money growth, supply what is already down quite significantly, and signs of weakness in the next two months purchasing managers index." I'll plump for a rate cut August to deliver relief - exactly one year after the start of the credit crisis. ?

Nothing has happened. July 8, 2008, after terrible manufacture figures, I said: "it is clear to me we led recession, once it dawns PPC should cut rates without delay." "There is nothing new. Monitoring additional warnings, but it is, on October 8, the PPC has begun coupe.Trop rates little, too late.

But even so far back in February 2006, which led to a recession debt crisis was also clearly evident.You did not need knowledge of experts from the banks balance sheets. The proof is in the high street b.c ' is the month that we began our series entitled "Decade of debt" constantly cautions on the impact of the mountain of debt of the United Kingdom and to establish the theme in these pages for the months and years to come.

On 14 February 2006, under the title "credit crunch expected Brown" came to this warning."It is not only consumers who are now drowning and is no longer stirring."Finance public sector are also out of control, the hotfix only, an increase of fees or a reduction of expenditure or the deux.Mais add to that the impact on the economy of consumer slow and you have a collapse that of love which we have not seen since more than 15 ans.Tous signs are there.

Legacy Mr. Brown is ugly fall out of the Decade of the debt, a legacy that undermine his Prime Minister, should he get it and give his own successor an impossible job.

But the career of a few politicians is as nothing compared with the damage to be visited on his profligacy powered by debt United Kingdom.?

Call me entertained, but we have tried to say that it as it has été.Je can only guess Bean and his colleagues refused to simply the croire.Je fear there is no indication that the situation has changed.

Edwina Dunn and Clive Humby left as President and Chief Executive of Dunn Humby, consumer insight firm generated Clubcard of Tesco.

Tesco loved society so it now possède.Le married couple is two of the best entrepreneurs in the United Kingdom.

In 1989 they took no wage for 18 months and are now preparing for their first break appropriée.Ils are the kind of talent that our economy besoin.Ils begin again?

They are not prejudging the future, but while they see fantastic opportunities to hire talented, given the labour market the tax regime is still weighed against contractors making it less interesting than 1989.

Take note of Mr Cameron and Osborne.

Damian.Reece@Telegraph.co.UK

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The construction sector has lost more than any other jobs in the recession, according to the figures of the Bacs payroll deductions.

The construction industry has been less resilient to redundancies, controls a number of salaries and wages paid during the three years in August 2010 Bacs 25pc slump, figures montrent.Le transport, storage and communication sector also saw a substantial under 19pc, just drop while making payments dropped almost 15pc over the same period, statistics by the organization behind the direct debit, Bacs has revealed.

Over 90pc of the workforce paid by Bacs, which means that the data illustrate the key trends and reflect the real winners and losers of the financial crisis.

Figures show more resistant of United Kingdom was in mines and quarries sector jobs recession, with a growth of 8pc in payments over three years to August 2010.Le sector health and social work was strong, arriving as it interprets the second best with a growth of 7pc payments, while education is in third place with a growth of 3pc.

Mike Hutchinson, Bacs, Marketing Manager said: "the construction industry has been the real loser, that extractive while experienced the highest increase payroll payments".

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The ICC investigation showed the expectations of the employment service sector has also declined.

Each key for the sector of services, such as the expectations of employment and investment, weakened over the past three months, according to the latest quarterly economic survey of the BCC flag.

Better much successful manufacturing, pointing to a rebalancing service-dependent, but on the whole economy of 5,300 companies survey was "disappointing", said the CCO.

The Organization has reiterated its call to the Bank of England, to increase its quantitative easing (QE) program from ￡ 200bn ￡ 250bn before the end of the year, to develop the economy in the best possible position to withstand the impact of the cuts public sector and increase in VAT from January.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to have already slowed in the "best" 0. 5pc in the third quarter of the 1. surprisingly robust 2pc recorded during the three previous months, David Kern, Chief Economist of the ICC, predicted in advance of official data.

"We are still growing, recovery continues, but it slows even before large sections begin," he said. "" ""These results demonstrate the importance of ensuring that the economy is ready when the larger measures begin to hit.?

The investigation has shown balance in the sector of services for UK orders declined significantly over the previous quarter, dropping into negative territory as confidence deteriorated.

Expectations of the employment sector was also refused, suggesting companies may struggle to absorb losses of public employment in the coming months.

However, balance manufacturing employment was at its strongest level since the beginning of the survey in 1989.

Confidence in bearing improve next year also rose among manufacturers, although optimism on future profitability has not kept pace.

Cash flow data has been "worryingly low" for the two sectors.

Forward-looking, ICC said he supported the austerity measures by the Government, but that it was possible that reductions should be reviewed next year when they start to bite.

"We don't think at the moment that the Government should reconsider its tax base program", said Mr. Kern. "The only thing that can really justify a review would be if the economy goes into decline and stays there.?

In addition to call more than QE, David Frost, Director ICC-General urges the Government to facilitate the conditions for business, citing "implacable" of the new legislation on employment .the burden flooding would jeopardize the ability of the private sector in public sector counter unemployment, he said.

Separately, the organisation of cooperation and economic development said its last composite leading indicators - to predict economic developments - emphasized strongly "in a slowdown' in the United Kingdom.

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